Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Re: [TheOptionClub.com] Over/underpriced options

 

Well, I thought you were going to tell me that you line up charts of the option and the stock to visualize the relationship between the two.
TOS and the Nasdaq web page both offer free charts of options.

One thing I might point out though, is that if you were to use vertical spreads instead of single options, your leverage would be much better per your account margin.
Try it - look at how much you could buy with say $500 and see that you could probably make about 8 times more with a spread, within a likely range of stock price.
Its after a 30% and up that a single option might pay off more, but how many moves like that do you really get?

Anyway, thats all interesting.

R

--- On Wed, 5/12/10, Kae Man <kaeman50@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Kae Man <kaeman50@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub.com] Over/underpriced options
To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2010, 12:20 PM



You are partly correct, there is no way of knowing when a stock will trend the other way; but there is a way to make a strong educated guess based on historical performance the range the stock price will be in before it changes direction and trend up for a period.  After the market closes, and on the weekends is when I pull the data; I was using data from stockdataguru.com, but their site went down; I now use ioptionprice.com, a new site.  It is not that pretty, but I think they are still refining it. 
 
Intra-day analysis is too risky because of all the junk out there in the news driving sentiment.  I track a number of stocks historical movement every day (say about 100 different stocks at a time), and model them based on some calculations I use to determine a "buy in" range.  The stock is trending down, and the daily price volatility is high compared to the norm (the absolute value of the difference between the open and high plus the open and low).  It is not always the lowest the price the stock will fall to before I buy in, but from that point the stock price usually moves up 20% at a minimum within 30 - 40 days.  Understanding the stock value, company, sector, etc. is to me a better way to estimate/anticipate if a stock price will move up. Then the other side is what you already know, with stock price movement, comes option price movement.  (I am talking calls only, puts are for the true gamblers; I don't touch them.)  I look at the historical option prices to see how the option price has moved during the contract, it gives me insight to the stock price / option price correlation; seeing the history day by day together really helps.  Eventually I sell the stock and option long before the stock price hits the option strike price; both are trending up so I take a little money and run.  Multiply this times about 10 - 15 stocks and option contracts per month; at it adds up nicely.  My worst case is holding a stock longer than 40 days, and loosing marginally on a contract; but it is not the norm and when I sell the stock I make back what I loose on the contract.  I am concious of holidays, dow average, earnings releases, and common things like that; they sometimes have an impact on the stock price.  Since I have been doing it, I have had 2 copanies go bankrupt on me; one was a bank and the other was a greek company.  In both cases, I knew not to buy, but I didn't listen to my concious. 
 
This is how I do it.  Other people may have diffent methods...

--- On Wed, 5/12/10, rvd <rvdidit@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: rvd <rvdidit@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub.com] Over/underpriced options
To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2010, 2:34 PM

 
By definition, "trend" would mean the stock would stay in the particular direction, otherwise it would not be a trend. So this could work.
Altho there is no way to determine when the trend will no longer be a trend. With all the small movements each day hour, minute, one can never tell which small move will end up changing the bigger trend.
How do you compare an option trend with a stock trend?

Ross

--- On Wed, 5/12/10, Kae Man <kaeman50@yahoo. com> wrote:

From: Kae Man <kaeman50@yahoo. com>
Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub. com] Over/underpriced options
To: OptionClub@yahoogro ups.com
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2010, 8:55 AM



I think all that "typical" volatility analysis people do is a bit over-rated; it is fancy guessing.  Basically it is a 50/50 chance; either the option will go up or it will go down.  What I do is look at the historical trend of the option price as it closes every day, and then trend it against the underlying stock price movement; along with other market, sector indicators.  I think this is a more logical, simpler way of guessing (anticipating) price movement.  Does anyone else use this approach....

--- On Wed, 5/12/10, Ricky Jimenez <rickyjim@bestweb. net> wrote:

From: Ricky Jimenez <rickyjim@bestweb. net>
Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub.com] Over/underpriced options
To: OptionClub@yahoogro ups.com
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2010, 1:30 PM

 
The problem is that the original question was unclear since the OP did
not exactly say how it was determined that the options were overpriced
by 10 cents. I would guess that Sveta put the option into a
calculator and entered a volatility which turned out to be less than
the current IV of the option in question. Was the 10 cents the
difference between the midpoint of the bid/ask spread of the actual
trading option versus what was determined from the calculator? I am
surprised it was that close.

On Wed, 12 May 2010 05:34:43 -0600, "Dennis Alverson"
<alv70669@gmail. com> wrote:

>It is debatable of whether options are every over or under priced. Because
>the speed and liquidity of the market place, option prices are typically
>what they should be based on the forces of supply and demand. The option
>pricing models are just that, models. The price of an option is determined
>by the pressures of supply and demand. For instance, the price of the option
>determines the IV of that option when plugged in to the Black-Scholes
>pricing model. The IV does not determine the price, but is a reflection of
>the price. When you write or short an option, you are making an IV or time
>play, i.e. you are betting the IV will drop or the option will decay over
>time. IV and time decay are strongly related an affect the extrinsic value
>of an option.
>
>
>
> _____
>
>From: OptionClub@yahoogro ups.com [mailto:OptionClub@yahoogro ups.com] On
>Behalf Of Sveta
>Sent: Monday, May 10, 2010 11:08 PM
>To: OptionClub@yahoogro ups.com
>Subject: [TheOptionClub. com] Over/underpriced options
>
>
>
>
>
>How much does an option have to be over or under priced to be considered
>just that? I put a couple of options through Black-Scholes and they were
>overpriced by 10 cents. Or does it have to be overpriced more then that to
>be considered for writing?
>Thanks guys
>
>








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