Thursday, March 11, 2010

RE: [TheOptionClub.com] SPY Just Hit My Short Strike

 

Sorry.  This is not well organized.  Let me restate ….

 

I had a calendar on GLD (not a SPY … my fingers must have been on autopilot).

 

My lower breakeven was 107.80.  GLD was around $108 when I closed the position.  But that is not the discussion point.

 

I closed the position because adjusting so close to expiration seems not to be a good idea, even though the iV has started to turn up a bit.

 

Second, I entered this position on 2/19.  The iV is shown here, with the entry highlighted.  I thought to myself that the iV may be going down, but it doesn’t have a long way to go, given the Jan and Feb low levels.  But it kept on going down.  So should I have adjusted to, say, an April iB or iC around the end of Feb when I saw the iV heading South?

 

BTW, the black doji when I exited the position turned into a small bodied white candle by EOD.  I guess if I have made the decision at EOD I would have given it another day.  As Charles Cottle said “coulda, woulda, shoulda”.

 

Thoughts

 

Bill

 

 

 

From: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com [mailto:OptionClub@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Bill Fletcher
Sent: Thursday, March 11, 2010 7:27 AM
To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [TheOptionClub.com] SPY Just Hit My Short Strike

 

 

I has a MAR/APR 110 calendar.  Same issue I took mine off because of MAR expiration concerns.  Sham, because vol had finally started to how signs of life … that that is because of the long red candle that messed up my delta.  I put it on on 2/19 when iV was low, but iV just went lower.  If it had been an iB it would probably be OK right now.

 

From: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com [mailto:OptionClub@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of metagunny
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:07 PM
To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [TheOptionClub.com] SPY Just Hit My Short Strike

 

 

As part of my iron condor position, a few weeks ago I sold the Mar. 20th 115 Call and bought the Mar 20th 118 strike.

The SPY has been flirting around this price for the past few days.

I think there is massive resistance around this price, so I haven't done anything yet.

However, the options are expiring in less than 10 days, so I have a few options.

Since the options are expiring in about a week, I was thinking about creating a butterfly position, since the price shouldn't move past three or four points in the next week anyway.

Or, I could just sit on the position, as I think there is a good chance it will expire below the 115 strike. My only worry if this HAPPENS to be the week it breaks above this resistance level, it will be on good volume and a good surge.

I think we are due for a pull back soon though.

Thoughts or ideas?

Thanks in advance.

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