Saturday, April 3, 2010

[TheOptionClub.com] Re: Index Settlement Values

 

This is not true. A long put position would profit from a 10% drop in the underlying. Another example is a ratioed calendar where a black swan either direction would be extremely profitable. E.g. Long 2 ABC Jun 50 Calls, long 2 ABC Jun 50 Puts, short 1 ABC Apr 50 Call, and short 1 ABC Apr 50 Put.

Tim

--- In OptionClub@yahoogroups.com, "christianhgross" <christianhgross@...> wrote:
>
> A Blackswan will wipe out the profit of any strategy.

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Re: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] Keep a Long-Term Focus

 

Gilbert,

I'm interested to hear more about your established sell methods mentioned below and what they're based on.

Thanks,

Dave

On Fri, Apr 2, 2010 at 2:05 PM, Gilbert Arevalo <gilbert_arevalo@rocketmail.com> wrote:
 

Alan, I am glad to answer your question. When I invest in high-yielding covered call positions - as a 10+ year strategy - I am attempting to strictly do so during "optimal" market periods (flat-to-up trends). Most every growth stocks I tightly screen for - will abide nicely with the trend. If they go down it's most always because SOMETHING is very wrong.

Either this is company specific or market-related, that (usually) spells trouble - really fast! MOMO stocks lead to the upside AND to the downside. If it's determined that a triggered STOP is company-specific (often this is only known after the fact), I will then allocate the cash into another selection. When my stops are consecutively triggered it's a good indication that a market shift is pending or already underway (meaning I need to get into or stay in cash). My STOPs naturally do this for me, time-and-again.

In the above example, I say USUALLY, because the recent (unhealthy) market has been anything but that.

Historical: After practically no gains for all of 2007 and just minor gains from 2-month rally off a correction bottom in '08 - - something certainly seemed amiss. Perhaps this market is your only experience, but as recent as the unprecedented late '08  *crash*, these "stop-loss methods" once again proved (amazingly) prudent, as I fully moved to cash in Sep-2008. By the end of the massive 6-month drop, it became very apparent to all what was really happening in the market!

Current: After averting a huge loss, we entered nicely off the '09 "bottom" , but barely kept pace with the market until Q3. Then our methods - for the first time in 12 years - suddenly began to significantly UNDER-perform. Time and again the caution flag was raised - that we consistently heeded...only to find the market vault to new highs in scant trade.

I don't know what your experience has been, but (sticking to my stop methods) this has been very frustrating indeed! I do believe that soon enough, a healthier backdrop will (once again) emerge as it has for the better part (~80%*) of the life of the market. Could this all mean that a severe adjustment will soon be underway? Many think so, but I can't predict. I only follow closely what the daily market does.  Meanwhile, I'll stick to my established sell methods and patiently wait for  a market reset to once again allow for a nice multi-month move with my long-term CC system.

When I update my performance charts I will try and post them. A pictorial should help bring into perspective the short-term versus my long-term system behavior.

G

* based on IBD research over the life of the market

From: Dale Johnson <outahere3982@yahoo.com>
To: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thu, April 1, 2010 1:28:14 PM
Subject: Re: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Gilbert,
 
I'm fairly new to covered calls and usually on read, and read, and read some more.  But can I ask why you set the stop loss so tight? 
 
Alan


From: Gilbert Arevalo <gilbert_arevalo@ rocketmail. com>
To: CoveredCallFund- Mentoring@ yahoogroups. com
Cc: ConservativeOptionS trategies@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thu, April 1, 2010 8:59:56 AM
Subject: [ConservativeOption Strategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Week of April 3, 2010

Thursday, April 1, 2010
9:30 am EST

Bought 100 shares of FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) at $42.91 (ask).

Sold (1) FXI Apr 43 (FXI1017D43) call option contract at $0.79 (bid).

Stop Loss: $42.12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My JAN-2010 to MAR-2010 CC Trades -

http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ ConservativeOpti onStrategies/ message/5726

Also see "KCM 2010 Trading History.doc" in the CoveredCallFund- Mentoring Group files section.
Join my new Y! Group to get these alerts in "real-time" and all CC Fund management training material w/ mentoring & auto-trade, available now.

G




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Friday, April 2, 2010

[ConservativeOptionStrategies] Keep a Long-Term Focus

 

Alan, I am glad to answer your question. When I invest in high-yielding covered call positions - as a 10+ year strategy - I am attempting to strictly do so during "optimal" market periods (flat-to-up trends). Most every growth stocks I tightly screen for - will abide nicely with the trend. If they go down it's most always because SOMETHING is very wrong.

Either this is company specific or market-related, that (usually) spells trouble - really fast! MOMO stocks lead to the upside AND to the downside. If it's determined that a triggered STOP is company-specific (often this is only known after the fact), I will then allocate the cash into another selection. When my stops are consecutively triggered it's a good indication that a market shift is pending or already underway (meaning I need to get into or stay in cash). My STOPs naturally do this for me, time-and-again.

In the above example, I say USUALLY, because the recent (unhealthy) market has been anything but that.

Historical: After practically no gains for all of 2007 and just minor gains from 2-month rally off a correction bottom in '08 - - something certainly seemed amiss. Perhaps this market is your only experience, but as recent as the unprecedented late '08  *crash*, these "stop-loss methods" once again proved (amazingly) prudent, as I fully moved to cash in Sep-2008. By the end of the massive 6-month drop, it became very apparent to all what was really happening in the market!

Current: After averting a huge loss, we entered nicely off the '09 "bottom" , but barely kept pace with the market until Q3. Then our methods - for the first time in 12 years - suddenly began to significantly UNDER-perform. Time and again the caution flag was raised - that we consistently heeded...only to find the market vault to new highs in scant trade.

I don't know what your experience has been, but (sticking to my stop methods) this has been very frustrating indeed! I do believe that soon enough, a healthier backdrop will (once again) emerge as it has for the better part (~80%*) of the life of the market. Could this all mean that a severe adjustment will soon be underway? Many think so, but I can't predict. I only follow closely what the daily market does.  Meanwhile, I'll stick to my established sell methods and patiently wait for  a market reset to once again allow for a nice multi-month move with my long-term CC system.

When I update my performance charts I will try and post them. A pictorial should help bring into perspective the short-term versus my long-term system behavior.

G

* based on IBD research over the life of the market

From: Dale Johnson <outahere3982@yahoo.com>
To: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thu, April 1, 2010 1:28:14 PM
Subject: Re: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Gilbert,
 
I'm fairly new to covered calls and usually on read, and read, and read some more.  But can I ask why you set the stop loss so tight? 
 
Alan


From: Gilbert Arevalo <gilbert_arevalo@ rocketmail. com>
To: CoveredCallFund- Mentoring@ yahoogroups. com
Cc: ConservativeOptionS trategies@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thu, April 1, 2010 8:59:56 AM
Subject: [ConservativeOption Strategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Week of April 3, 2010

Thursday, April 1, 2010
9:30 am EST

Bought 100 shares of FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) at $42.91 (ask).

Sold (1) FXI Apr 43 (FXI1017D43) call option contract at $0.79 (bid).

Stop Loss: $42.12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My JAN-2010 to MAR-2010 CC Trades -

http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ ConservativeOpti onStrategies/ message/5726

Also see "KCM 2010 Trading History.doc" in the CoveredCallFund- Mentoring Group files section.
Join my new Y! Group to get these alerts in "real-time" and all CC Fund management training material w/ mentoring & auto-trade, available now.

G



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[ConservativeOptionStrategies] Re: Tracking software

 

Louis,
I appreciate your dilemma. It's the old risk versus reward thing. I don't have a brilliant answer for you. Perhaps we can get some other posting that have used different approaches to this.

Michael
www.safe-options-trading-income.com

--- In ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com, "Louis" <loupi3@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> --- In ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com, "optionsmike"
> Michael,
> That's what I'm doing, but of course that takes some, or all, of the profit out of the CC sale. I'm compensating for that by selling an OTM cash secured put. If I want to get out of a stock though, I have to buy back the CC which raises my cost back up. Since stock prices and option bid/asks are continually changing and I'm trying to be alert to both opportunities and dangers, I'm looking for an optimal record keeping method.
> Lou
>
> <michael@> wrote:
> >
> > Louis,
> > I cannot recommend any software but I will mention you may wish to collar your longer-dated and already profitable cc with a protective put.
> >
> > Michael
> > www.safe-options-trading-income.com
> >
> > --- In ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com, "Louis" <loupi3@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Since being burned too often with trailing stops, I'm trying to develop a method of protecting my downside while still maintaining profits.
> > > Combinations of strike prices, option months, option combinations, rolling up, rolling down, etc, etc gets tedious to track on an ongoing basis on an excel sheet when I'm using different option combinations for different time periods on different underlyings.
> > > Does anyone know of any prepackaged software that will enable me to track relatively automatically, for instance, cost and current price of underlying, cost or premium of options used, profit or loss on any rollups with cost or premium of new option positions, all resulting in a final profit or loss on any sale as well as open positions?
> > > Thanks for any help.
> > > Lou
> > >
> >
>

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Thursday, April 1, 2010

Re: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Gilbert,
 
I'm fairly new to covered calls and usually on read, and read, and read some more.  But can I ask why you set the stop loss so tight? 
 
Alan


From: Gilbert Arevalo <gilbert_arevalo@rocketmail.com>
To: CoveredCallFund-Mentoring@yahoogroups.com
Cc: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thu, April 1, 2010 8:59:56 AM
Subject: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Week of April 3, 2010

Thursday, April 1, 2010
9:30 am EST

Bought 100 shares of FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) at $42.91 (ask).

Sold (1) FXI Apr 43 (FXI1017D43) call option contract at $0.79 (bid).

Stop Loss: $42.12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My JAN-2010 to MAR-2010 CC Trades -

http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ ConservativeOpti onStrategies/ message/5726

Also see "KCM 2010 Trading History.doc" in the CoveredCallFund- Mentoring Group files section.
Join my new Y! Group to get these alerts in "real-time" and all CC Fund management training material w/ mentoring & auto-trade, available now.

G


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[ConservativeOptionStrategies] [CoveredCallFund-Mentoring] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (MELI)

 

In keeping with today's (thus far) bullish price and volume action [Nasdaq has - however - reversed significantly from highs, but along with the market is up in much high volume (than yesterday's decline)].

Notice that premium to FXI & MELI stock cost isn't *huge*, but an ETF - I rarely use - is a safer (more diverse) play and technical action in these is very strong, which takes precedent in today's market. Also keep in mind that if we tie up an extra few k in capital, we aren't anywhere near allocating half (the most I use) available margin.

Additionally, our exposure is as scheduled as our CENX close proved (thus far) for this part of the portfolio to stay allocated. In other words we've just replaced it with FXI and about another k to get the similar premium. Also, keep tight STOPs as we have an automatic exit of both call option and stock, at this time, for both of these positions

Thursday, April 1, 2010
1:08 pm EST

Bought 100 shares of MELI (Mercadolibre, Inc.) at $49.46 (ask).

Sold (1) MELI Apr 50 (QMB1017D50) call option contract at $1.10 (bid).

Stop Loss: $48.36

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My JAN-2010 to MAR-2010 CC Trades -

http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ ConservativeOpti onStrategies/ message/5726

Also see "KCM 2010 Trading History.doc" in the CoveredCallFund- Mentoring Group files section.
Join my new Y! Group to get these alerts in "real-time" and all CC Fund management training material w/mentoring & auto-trade, available now.

G

From: Gilbert Arevalo <gilbert_arevalo@rocketmail.com>
To: CoveredCallFund-Mentoring@yahoogroups.com
Cc: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thu, April 1, 2010 6:59:56 AM
Subject: [CoveredCallFund-Mentoring] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Week of April 3, 2010

Thursday, April 1, 2010
9:30 am EST

Bought 100 shares of FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) at $42.91 (ask).

Sold (1) FXI Apr 43 (FXI1017D43) call option contract at $0.79 (bid).

Stop Loss: $42.12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My JAN-2010 to MAR-2010 CC Trades -

http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ ConservativeOpti onStrategies/ message/5726

Also see "KCM 2010 Trading History.doc" in the CoveredCallFund- Mentoring Group files section.
Join my new Y! Group to get these alerts in "real-time" and all CC Fund management training material w/ mentoring & auto-trade, available now.

G


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[ConservativeOptionStrategies] My APR-2010 CC Trades - (FXI)

 

Week of April 3, 2010

Thursday, April 1, 2010
9:30 am EST

Bought 100 shares of FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) at $42.91 (ask).

Sold (1) FXI Apr 43 (FXI1017D43) call option contract at $0.79 (bid).

Stop Loss: $42.12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My JAN-2010 to MAR-2010 CC Trades -

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/ConservativeOptionStrategies/message/5726

Also see "KCM 2010 Trading History.doc" in the CoveredCallFund-Mentoring Group files section.
Join my new Y! Group to get these alerts in "real-time" and all CC Fund management training material w/ mentoring & auto-trade, available now.

G

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