David,
I use the tools at OptionsXpress, the broker I use to do credit spreads. Among many other cool tools, they have a probability calculator.
Michael
www.safe-options-
--- In ConservativeOptionS
>
>
>
>
>
> Hi Michael,
>
> Â
>
> Can you tell me about the probability calculator you are
> using? Do you find it to be a helpful indicator? I have noticed with the think or swim probability
> calculator that it is more a snap shot it time as when things start to move
> (they always do) the probability changes drastically on small moves.
>
>
>
> --- On Sat, 2/27/10, optionsmike <michael@...
>
> From: optionsmike <michael@...
> Subject: [ConservativeOption
> To: ConservativeOptionS
> Date: Saturday, February 27, 2010, 1:53 PM
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Â
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Hi Stan,
>
> Exellent add. You have quantified the qualitative ideas I suggested. In fact, I often use a probabilty calculator when I do these and look for 80 - 90% probability targets. Adding quantified rules to the iron condor trade makes goos sense.
>
>
>
> Michael
>
> www.safe-options- trading-income. com
>
>
>
> --- In ConservativeOptionS trategies@ yahoogroups. com, "StanG" <asahi3@> wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Hi, OptionsMike,
>
> > It's quite difficult to trade with rules like - "1. Make sure the sold call on both sides of the condor are quite far out of the money". Mainly because it's pretty meaningless. It should be something much more concrete like - 1)"at least one Standard Deviation from the live price." or "having a Delta of .02 or less" or "having a probability of 80% of closing below (above, depending on side) that strike". Also 2)the market should be in a non-volatile state. 3)The strikes on the Credit Spreads should also be one, to at most three apart. This is to control somewhat the effects of Delta. It is probably better to trade the IWM versus the RUT because the RUT strikes are ten points apart. The trade off is more contracts for a given return i.e. more in commissions but easier to adjust if required.
>
> > Have a good week-end, Folks...
>
> > Stan
>
> >
>
> > --- In ConservativeOptionS trategies@ yahoogroups. com, "optionsmike" <michael@> wrote:
>
> > >
>
> > > Hi Tom,
>
> > > In my opinion, iron condors can indeed be a conservative options strategy especially with the following three caveats in mind: 1. Make sure the sold call on both sides of the condor are quite far out of the money, 2. find a range-bound stock or ETF without too much volatility, and 3. keep you commissions rock-bottom low. Hope this is useful to you.
>
> > >
>
> > > Michael
>
> > > www.safe-options- trading-income. com
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > --- In ConservativeOptionS trategies@ yahoogroups. com, Tom Clark <tec@> wrote:
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Are Iron Condors considered enough of a conservative strategy for
>
> > > > discussion here?
>
> > > >
>
> > > > If so than I can only assume that some readers of this group may use
>
> > > > IC's. I am considering expanding my use of options to include Iron
>
> > > > Condors and I'm looking for a mentor. I'm not looking for someone to
>
> > > > teach IC's, I've got the general idea, I just want someone with whom
>
> > > > I can bounce trade ideas off of and who might just keep me form going
>
> > > > off the deep end. All of this would be off-line from the group. If
>
> > > > interested drop me a private email.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Thanks
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
No comments:
Post a Comment