Monday, December 14, 2009

RE: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] Re: Long-Term Growth Strategy

 

Well, I can do spreadsheets and can write.  Jack

 

-----Original Message-----
From: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com [mailto:ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Gilbert
Sent: Saturday, December 12, 2009 11:16 AM
To: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] Re: Long-Term Growth Strategy

 

 

Thank you, those that emailed and replied to the thread. There is some interest and I'm really certain with gains from high-growth CC plays with a turn off the next correction bottom - interest will skyrocket!

I started real-money covered call trading with $20k in an IRA account in Jan 2002. My stop methods allowed for a prolonged downturn [w/ a few *failed* (head-fake) market "bottom" attempts] to not hurt or drawdown my account TOO much (<20%) - before rallying in Q4 into the year-end to close out with a 0% annual gain.

But in 2003, on March 17th I began selling covered calls again and VIOLA - big Nasdaq gains (70%) allowed for even bigger (120%) annual CC gains. The Covered Call Investment Training services I was offering got a HUGE response, since many jumped on board knowing/seeing big gains on the table for this strategy approach.

I see this happening in the near future, hopefully. So now is a good time and I put this "proposal" together before these last recent posts with more detail. Please review and we can get started ASAP. I appreciate those offering help to make things run best.

=====
I'm just going to throw this out there and see what (if any) response I get back. If the past is any indication of the future - we are very nearly in for some ramped up gains using my covered call system.

I would like to start a new group. I've been trading covered calls for over 10 years. My training methods may not work for everyone, but I am willing to give it a try here. I took a couple of years off from involving myself much with training students to develop my other trading strategies.

I'm going to try something new in 2010. I have a results-driven covered call website. Key design metrics (imho) to an investment strategy are (1) long-term prospects (2) calmar ratio* (3) scaleability (4) time involvement (5) automation quantity.

Ideally system rules are set across all time-frames and work to produce a good-to-high annual return and refuses to break or drawdown much under worst-case circumstances. If the majority of trading signals/research routines/market analysis can be automated the better.

All of this is already complete or accomplished. Gains are exponential. The value during "training" of students, however is often over-looked or missed. It takes about ONE YEAR to experience all market scenarios that may include high returns during optimal periods and little growth when conserving equity during difficult (less-optimal) market climates.

Truth be told, all situations need to be experienced or navigated to completely learn a true winning trading strategy successfully. Hitting metrics during all of these periods is all good (even when gains aren't being made). A true long-term (multi-year) successful approach will have high gain periods and drawdowns. It is just part of the game.

But to truly understand and "get" this great value (see compounding annual returns chart) about one year needs to be sacrificed. In closing, the trading strategy has been designed and kept entirely simple - it is also proven - so the routine will not require much day-to-day time. It just requires that you trade across all types of markets: uptrends and downtrends and flat.

I would like to also get some help with the weekly routine. Stock and option data need to be entered into a spreadsheet (copy and paste) for me to process the weekly watchlist. Charting spreadsheets will need to be routinely updated to track progress. I would also like to get help with the weekly market analysis. Basically I need a rewrite of 5 snapshots provided for the week to be put in my weekly newsletter.

Basically just make every (market orders - about 15 per month) trade both in and out of all stock and option positions, within a reasonably time. We basically compare the covered call return on a trailing 12-month chart versus the Nasdaq to see that current progress is in keeping with past (25%+ outperformance versus the Nasdaq).

*CAGR/DD (compounded annual growth rate/(max drawdown): ~2.5 (50%/20%)

I've done some market shift calls and trades in the last two years in forums - but would now like to get a more detailed discussion amongst interested covered call investors. Perhaps taking 5 people that can compare results. Can be paper-traded as my graphing spreadsheet allows. It would also be good to compare those that take trades exactly when they happen versus those that get around to it perhaps hours later or even at the open the next day and compare this. Annual charts are supposed to be nearly exact, TBD.

I do not think that one year is too much to learn a valuable lesson for life. After all, if one actually learns how to get these same results their long-term return can't be beaten by anyone. I think this will be fun for everyone. Any questions?

this from John Hudgens may probably much help:

While I do not want to be in the group, you might consider setting up a paper account at Opions House. They love virtual accounts, as a way to bring in new blood. If you have single account, you could cheat the password, give it to everyone and then everyone could see what happens.

regards, G

--- In ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com, "Gilbert" <gilbert_arevalo@...> wrote:
>
> I should also add that my step-by-step covered call training program will be free for volunteers, while their time will be minimal. Newbies that will paper-trade are the best candidates.
>
> Please submit your qualifications and/or interest. Amongst the 5 I hope to get someone with a bit of writing skills, while others can keep an Excel spreadsheet updated (or can learn this).
>
> I got good proven results for 11 years (~50% CAGR). From 2007-2009 I returned 17%, while the market lost 28%. We'll just take every posted trade (about 15 per month) and map out the return versus the market (Nasdaq). CC gains should exceed this by about 25%+ in 12 months.
>
> After one year of complete - given the individuals stick to the plan - training can be used (beating most) for life. If I get a good initial response, I can then post more of the details.
>
> G

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