Sunday, January 3, 2010

[TheOptionClub.com] Looking for input on a condor paper trade I am constructing

 

Forgive the elementary nature of this question (actually a few questions), as you will see it is probably a good thing I am looking at this as only a paper trade. Looking at a February RUT condor consisting of 520/510 puts with 700/710 calls. My reasoning for choosing the 520 put and the 700 call as my short positions is they each have a delta of 8 in keeping with a suggestion from a course I took. The 520 put is out more than two standard deviations and the 700 call is between one and two standard deviations. So, as far as I can tell this is a high probability venture, but of course the reward is limited. (at about .80) Is this considered to be too low of a risk reward? It seems to me having to put up $920 to get $80 is not a great ratio. I have heard the term "picking up nickles in front of a steamroller" and it may apply here. Am I putting too much emphasis on the deltas? Finally what consideration should I be giving to the volatility on these options? The 520 put is at 38.09 while the 700 call is at 21.48. How does an experienced trader view this aspect of a potential trade? As always, thanks to each and everyone of you who offer your insight to those of us still finding our way. John

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