Option Trading Articles: Re: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] Re: stop-losses for covered calls

Friday, April 9, 2010

Re: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] Re: stop-losses for covered calls

I don't think stop losses are tricky. However, their settings, imo, should be determined with proper backtesting and not by random "hunting". It is also important to be sure that one has the capability to evaluate all of the stop's parameters. So, for example, in the case of Chandelier plus a stop loss % I optimize ATR period, ATR multiple, and stop loss %. In addition, one has to decide how to evaluate them. In my case, I evaluate all indicators, including stops, on the basis of equity. This is simple and adequate for my purposes although to be sure some like to go after more exotic metrics. The settings determined in this manner will usually be relatively stable for a reasonable time but should be checked periodically to ascertain if a new backtest/optimization run is needed which should only take a few minutes.

Bill

----- Original Message -----

From: Louis

To: ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com

Sent: April 08, 2010 11:07 PM

Subject: [ConservativeOptionStrategies] Re: stop-losses for covered calls

Stop losses can be extremely tricky and there are a plethora of methods to determine them; ATR,chandelier stops, etc, etc). There is or was a service on the web that seemed to offer a successful system for understanding and setting stop losses. Unfortunately I forget the URL. Personally, I've had perennially bad judgment in my own attempts. I've tried everything from 2% to 10% and inevitably I got stopped out only to see the stock rise dramatically. The only times stops have worked for me was when I had a large gain and placed a tight trailing stop to protect tne profit while letting the stock run.
Lou

--- In ConservativeOptionStrategies@yahoogroups.com, "joe & leigh" <gass20@...> wrote:
>
> i've been reading the posts regarding stop-losses on covered calls. some are using the purchase price minus premium as a stop-loss. imo, that is too tight and surely the majority of the time one would be stopped out.
>
> one can use implied volatility (iv) to estimate how much a stock will move during the expiration period of your covered call. as an example let's use the closing price of an index etf ....spy.         spy = 118.36; the may expiration atm 119 call is 2.07 with iv of 14%.
>
> volatility is usually expressed in annual terms and is a measure of how much a stock can move over a specific period of time and is defined as the standard deviation of daily percentage changes of the stock price. a standard deviation, up or down, encompasses 2/3rd's of all price occurrences.
>
> so using spy above with an iv of 0.14 theoretically means that spy will be up 14% or down 14% in one year. but we have a timeframe with our covered call expiring in may of 44 days. we need to convert that iv to our timeframe of 44 days. well standard deviations increases proportionately to the square root of time. therefore if there are 252 trading days in a year you want to multiply that 14% iv by the square root of 44/252 to get the standard deviation for this 44 day period.    0.14*sqrt (44/252) = 0.585 or 5.85%.
>
> therefore there is a 2/3rds possibility (ie 1 std) that spy now at 118.36 will fluctuate plus or minus 5.85% from 118.36.   using math that is 111.5 to 125.3.
>
> using a stop-loss of 118.36 minus 2.07 (the premium) = 116.29 makes for many a stopped out trades.
>
> if there is a 2/3rds chance to hit 111.5 during the 44 days what do you think the chance of hitting 116.29? would say much higher.
>
> with high iv stocks the premiums are never enough to compensate and the odds get even higher of being stopped out......... definitely use stops wether mental or contingent orders but allow them wide enough not to be stopped out to frequently because those losses kills a portfolio returns....
>
> drjoe
>

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