Sunday, January 10, 2010

RE: [TheOptionClub.com] I have paid more than my share of dues in these markets

 

Well with Livermore, he just kind of had a premonition and shorted the market. Then as the news of quake began to ripple across the tape he pounded the market even more. by the time the full devastation of the disaster was absorbed, analyzed and priced in the market he was buying his shorts back in and pocketing millions.  I guess we need to learn how to trade – and trade big and fearlessly - into uncertainty and sign up for a clairvoyance class.

J

 

As an aside, this is exactly what is confounding about markets. The human brain through evolution has learned how to survive by doing almost exactly the opposite of what is required to succeed at trading. For instance, I live in Chicago and regrettably every winter comes an inevitable snowstorm. Most drivers will of course slow down, or avoid driving altogether, during a blizzard. This seems prudent and just good sense. however, in trading, during a figurative financial blizzard, the ones who wind up with all the chips are those that press the pedal to the metal and disregard everyone else spinning out of control. So just as black swans are inherently unpredictable, another key aspect is that they are even more difficult to profit from: only a few lunatics out there make a killing.

 

 

From: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com [mailto:OptionClub@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Adam Green
Sent: Sunday, January 10, 2010 10:05 PM
To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub.com] I have paid more than my share of dues in these markets

 



I salute your contrarian disposition.  You might care to note, I wrote "the black swan" not "black swans are not..."  I was speaking to the future, not defining the terms Taleb invented. : )

 

As for your earthquake trading system, is there an advisory service to sign up for trade ideas?  : )

On Sun, Jan 10, 2010 at 7:43 PM, mcatolico <mcatolico@mindspring.com> wrote:

 

 

 

Adam wrote:


The black swan is not an earthquake! : )

 

mc- actually earthquakes have been known to create financial black swans. Read reminiscences of a stock operator sometime to see how Livermore made a killing on the 1906 san fran earthquake

 

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--
Adam




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