-----Original Message-----
From: speedsam21
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[ Questions ] -
IV/Vega - This is one area I am still struggling. Delta, Theta, Gamma -
these are 'visible' in my radar, but Vega is, often times, neglected as part
of my check list in trade adjustment.
MC - I don't know if it will help make it a little more concrete but: vega =
theta. Both of these Greeks are different ways of describing the exact same
thing, namely, extrinsic premium. theta decreases extrinsic premium in sort
of a predictable fashion over time. Vega is just a way of saying that theta
(extrinsic premium) is behaving erratically. Vega acts like a time machine
in which theta can go backwards, stay frozen in time or accelerate. If you
understand and focus on extrinsic premium levels it won't matter whether you
call it vega or theta or "bruce". You just have to understand what it is
doing and somehow deduce reasons why it is acting the way it is and then bet
accordingly since, no matter what, at expiration there will be no extrinsic
premium remaining.
I can understand your criteria of 1.5SD in change in price in underlying
that warrants an adjustment.
What is your criteria with regards to changes in volatility?
How do you keep volatility in focus in your trade adjustment?
As IV changes, what kind of values that nudge you to trade short/long Vega?
Can you give an example in your trade adjustment that will help us
understand your thinking process in managing Vega?
Especially when it comes a multi-strike position after you have executed a
series of adjustments.
MC - changing volatility basically signals to me whether or not I should be
long premium or short premium. by "premium" I mean owning more long units or
long options than short options. The "adjustment" is often (painfully)
obvious. If I am net short premium and volatility rises, I lose money so I
am forced to buy more options. Conversely if I am long too many units in a
declining volatility environment I will lose and will thus have to sell some
of that inventory. I look at the typical or conventional adjustment move
that we discuss here often (e.g. at the 1.5 SD level) as "managing delta
risk". how I make the adjustment is contingent on what's happening to
volatility. So for example let's say I am long a 75 strike put on abcde
stock which is trading at 78 with initial implied volatility of 35%. If a
day or so later abcde rises to 81 (about a 1.5SD move) I now am short fewer
deltas than I originally established by buying the put. If I want to
maintain the same negative deltas for whatever reason I need to make an
adjustment to my 75 put. But before I decide how I want to adjust I look at
what is happening to implied volatility. Let's say that IV has dropped to
30%. I now know that I not only need to accumulate some short deltas (again
underscoring that in this example it's only because I want to stay short
deltas at this juncture) but I should be doing it by selling premium. so
perhaps my chosen strategy would be to sell the 80/85 call spread which
would get me my desired short deltas but also take into account the
declining volatility environment. With a multi-legged trade, the same
principles - if you can call them that - apply but you just need to
understand the relationships between all the legs and the net values of
delta and vega locally(i.e. near the atm underlying price).
Paper Trade? -
If your time allows, could you help us with a paper trade to illustrate your
point.
Perhaps, using your favorite underlying, besides GOOG - :)
GS?
MC- help me out by suggesting a trade in GS (please use May series so this
doesn't go on forever).
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