I agree with Mark. I do not think the 2% skew makes it a bad trade, but when putting it on initially; a less than normal to positive skew does tend to contribute to a more profitable trade.
I believe Think or Swim allows you to vary the vols on the front and back month to see the net effect. I think you will find that sensitivity to vols lies more in the long , back month option.
Since the back month OTM option has more extrinsic value/juice and vega than the front month option, by definition it is more sensitive to changes in vol.
The guerilla is less sensitive than a multi-month time spreads, but even subtle changes in vol influence the P/L early in the life of the guerilla trade. I think calendars in general get a bad wrap.
Think about the position –
From a pure vol perspective:
You’re selling closer in time than you’re buying; you want front month vols to drop and perhaps buy back the shorts for a profit or let it expire
You ‘re buying longer in time than you’re selling; these have more vega – you want less of a drop in vols on the back month.
I think the deltas, etc are obvious. Some options to consider for adjusting may be:
1 – Adding a second calendar somewhere near the expiration break evens. This is my preferred adjustment, but I’ve also done #2 and #3 below.
2 – Rolling your back month longs out, further away from the shorts making a double diagonal. The further out you roll them, the less vega sensitivity your net position has.
3 – Rolling the back month longs up to the front month for a condor…
Many , many options all allowing you to control many aspect of the trade to match your outlook.
From: OptionClub@yahoogro
Sent: Friday, July 30, 2010 1:14 AM
To: OptionClub@yahoogro
Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub.
Thanks Mark. When I put the trade on, the IV of the short was 24.9% and the IV of the long was 25.9%. From what I have learned, you want that volatility skew to be between -2 and +2 unless you are specifically playing the vols due to an upcoming catalyst.
RFH
--- In OptionClub@yahoogro
>
> I know I have said this before but, one of the most common misconceptions
> about calendars is how they react to changes in IV, and when the best time
> to enter them is. I will be interested to see how the XLE calendar goes as
> well, my hope, it's a home run. That said, with Aug vol trading at almost
> 2% below Sep, I am not in love with the conditions in which you placed this
> time spread.
>
>
>
> -Mark
>
>
>
> From: OptionClub@yahoogro
> Behalf Of William Fletcher
> Sent: Thursday, July 29, 2010 9:09 AM
> To: optionclub@yahoogro
> Subject: RE: [TheOptionClub.
>
>
>
>
>
> It is of interest to me. I put an XLE calendar on on 7/13. My high
> breakeven is $55 and it is at $54.31. I have a couple of others like that -
> DIA and OEX - close to or at resistance and waiting for a pullback. My
> guess is you entered at a better iV, but you are entering about at the end
> of what I consider my entry window. It will be interesting to see.
>
>
>
> The beige book is due out today, which may back off the price a bit and
> raise the iV on my positions to help me out a bit.
>
>
>
> Keep me posted.
>
>
>
> Bill
>
> _____
>
> To: OptionClub@yahoogro
> From: robhansen5252@
> Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 04:57:22 +0000
> Subject: [TheOptionClub.
>
>
>
> Hi. I opened up a "gorrilla calendar" time spread in XLE on Tuesday. I know
> that on occasion, this forum has tracked various options strategies, trades
> and adjustments both theoretically as paper trades and in real time. If
> there is any interest, I'd be happy to report the particulars of the trade,
> profit goals, adjustments, etc. as they occur. Of course if there are any
> differing opinions as to how to handle the inevitable scenarios between now
> and August expiration, they can be debated. Could this possibly be a
> learning experience?
>
> RFH
>
>
>
>
>
> _____
>
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