Dan says that you should try to pay $1.00 a contract when trading these guerrilla calendars. Nevertheless, if you put 10 of these on, it will cost you $320 before commissions. If you are shooting for 20% profit, you should take the commissions into account, so add $60 to the projected 20% ($30 in and $30 out) and you should be looking to get out when the value of the spread is $444. So the spread started out at 0.32 and you want it to appreciate to 0.44. This is certainly attainable. Then you trade 100 of these next month! (Right).
RFH
--- In OptionClub@yahoogroups.com, "WilliamF" <wnfletcher@...> wrote:
>
> I have started to work on guerrilla calendars seriously. I have constructed a set of rules based on data from Sheridan and others.
> I was looking at an Aug Sep WAG ATM calendar. The 29s are 96 cents for the front, and $1.28 on the back (these are bid and ask). So doing it one time costs me $32 a contract. A ToS round trip for 4 contracts is $6 at $1.50 a contract.
>
> So if I set a target profit of 20% of my $32, that is $6.40. So after commissions I have a whole 40 cents left to spend on my celebration dinner!
>
> Yet this trade follows all the rules that I have looked at - volatility, skew, front vs back prices, minimum short premium etc.
>
> I suspect I need to trade a bigger underlying, but surely that should just be reflected in a "minimum cost per contract".
>
> Does anybody have enough practice on these to have a rule they feel comfortable with?
>
> Bill
>
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